The current price of PVC reaches a 10-year high
Last week, the price of PVC futures hit a 10-year high. Many market participants thought it was reasonable. Strong fundamentals were the main driving force behind the rise of PVC prices.
Huaan Futures analyst Lu Zheyuan told the Futures Daily reporter that since the beginning of this year, PVC prices have risen one after another, mainly due to the impact of the US cold wave that began at the end of February. The cold wave caused a large number of PVC plants in Texas to shut down due to power problems. As the main international supplier of PVC sources, the United States has been affected by the cold wave and the suspension of production of many PVC factories has supported the price of PVC in the internationally tight PVC market.
"In the second half of last year, the olefin plants in Europe and the United States were not operating normally. In addition to the cold wave in the United States in February this year, the power equipment was interrupted, the chlor-alkali plant was damaged, and the real estate boom in the United States continued to rise. The price of PVC in foreign countries continued to rise, and the U.S. export price (FAS Houston) ) From US$1,450 per ton to US$1,800 per ton. The CFR China price of Formosa Plastics rose from 1160 yuan per ton to 1510 yuan per ton, equivalent to RMB 11,000-12,000 per ton.” Lin Xiaotao said, the domestic export space opens up , The export volume in the first quarter reached 510,000 tons, exceeding the full-year level of 2019 and approaching the full-year level of 2020.
In fact, PVC exports have increased more than expected. Since August last year, the price gap between the domestic and foreign markets has gradually widened, the export arbitrage window has opened, and the PVC export market situation has improved.
"In 2021, the PVC export market is still relatively optimistic, and the number of export orders has increased significantly. Statistics show that China\'s cumulative PVC exports in the first quarter were 509,300 tons, which was significantly higher than the same period in the previous year. Among them, the export volume in March was as high as 229,300 tons. The overseas epidemic situation has improved, and demand for PVC has recovered rapidly, but the recovery of PVC production has not been sufficient, which has led to a significant increase in foreign trade demand, and the role of PVC export market in stimulating consumption has been greatly enhanced." Founder Mid-term Futures analyst Xia Congcong said.
With the accelerated recovery of the global economy and a positive macroeconomic environment, domestic PVC downstream demand has gradually increased. "The proportion of PVC downstream products has not changed much. Pipes per pipe fittings, profiles per doors and windows are in an important position, which is the main driving force for the growth of PVC demand. Pipes per pipe fittings and profiles per doors and windows are mainly used in the construction field. The development of domestic real estate construction affects PVC Demand plays a decisive role." Xia Congcong introduced that the off-season effect of the real estate market weakened in the first quarter, the supply area of commercial residential buildings in key cities continued to grow, and transactions maintained a certain degree of activity. In the first quarter, the national commercial housing sales area and sales amount both hit new highs in the same period in recent years. The overall market is improving, and other indicators of the industry have also improved significantly. From the perspective of terminal demand, PVC just needs to maintain a steady upward trend.
In addition, rising costs also support PVC prices to a certain extent. Xia Congcong told a reporter from the Futures Daily that since March, the policy level has increased its influence on the calcium carbide market. The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued the "Guarantee Measures for Ensuring the Completion of the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for Energy Consumption Dual Control Target Tasks "Draft for Solicitation of Comments". Under the influence of the energy consumption dual control policy, the operation of calcium carbide plant has further declined, which has exacerbated the tight supply of calcium carbide.The price of calcium carbide broke last year of high and hit a record high. The operating range of the raw material calcium carbide price has moved up significantly, and the cost of PVC production has continued to increase.
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